Probabilistic

Richard Hanania—one of those weird right-wing randos who appear on the scene out of nowhere every few months, suddenly raised to Twitter prominence for some occult algorithmic/dark-money reason that we will never get a good answer about—wrote a long newsletter in which he endorses opposing The Current Thing as a “heuristic”: “I would argue that a probabilistic approach suggests that we should be anti-current thing.”

Johnson explained that absolute gauging assumed that everything that could go wrong would go wrong at the same time, resulting in the train hitting the platform. In contrast, probabilistic gauging says that everything can go wrong, but not at the same time. For the Pitsea '357', probabilistic gauging estimated a 0.00001% chance of the train hitting the platform. That seems much closer to the daily life of Pitsea Platform 2.